There is a chance for USD to test 148.80; a sustained break above this level seems unlikely. In the longer run, rapid increase in momentum indicates USD could above 148.80, potentially reaching 149.20, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Above 148.80, USD can potentially reach 149.20
24-HOUR VIEW: “Two days ago, USD dropped to a low of 146.85 and closed at 147.32. Yesterday, we noted that ‘there is no clear increase in downward momentum,’ and we expected USD to ‘trade in a range between 146.90 and 147.90.’ We did not expect the sharp rise in USD that sent it to a high of 148.40. This time around, there is a clear increase in upward momentum. Today, there is a chance for USD to test 148.80. Given that conditions are quickly reaching overbought levels, a sustained break above this level seems unlikely. To maintain the rapid momentum buildup, USD must hold above 147.70, with minor support at 148.00.”
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We have expected USD to trade in a range since last Friday (15 Aug, spot at 147.15). Yesterday (21 Aug, spot at 147.45), we stated that ‘while we continue to expect range-trading, a narrower range of 146.50/148.50 is likely enough to contain the price movements for now.’ We did not expect the sharp rise in USD to 148.40. Although the 148.50 level has not been breached yet, the rapid increase in short-term upward momentum indicates USD could above 148.80, potentially reaching 149.20. To sustain the rapid increase in momentum, USD must hold above 147.35 (‘strong support’ level).”
