The value of key foreign currencies in Cuba has been climbing for the fourth consecutive day, reinforcing the upswing that began late last week in the informal market. This market continues to be the most reliable indicator of the nation’s ongoing economic crisis.
The exchange rate data from elTOQUE reveals that the U.S. dollar (USD) is currently trading at 450 Cuban pesos (CUP), marking an increase of 10 pesos from the previous day.
The euro (EUR) also experiences an uptick, reaching 480 CUP, while the Freely Convertible Currency (MLC) remains stable at 205 CUP.
Informal Exchange Rates Show Recovery
The upward trend observed in recent days indicates that the informal exchange market is bouncing back after the steep decline seen at the end of October and early November, when the dollar hit a low of 410 CUP and the euro fell to 450 CUP, marking their lowest values in weeks.
Analysis of the past month’s exchange rate charts shows that after peaking at 490 CUP (USD) and 540 CUP (EUR) towards the end of October, both currencies underwent a sharp drop, which now seems to be reversing.
Independent economists suggest that this rebound could signal the beginning of a new speculative phase, typical during periods of instability in the Cuban market, where sudden drops are often followed by sustained increases driven by the demand for foreign currencies.
Inflation and Economic Uncertainty
This surge occurs amidst persistent inflation, a shortage of foreign currency in banks, and a deep mistrust in the Cuban peso and the country’s institutions.
The lack of liquidity and restrictions on accessing cash on the island are increasingly pushing Cubans towards the parallel market, where the dollar and euro serve as safe havens against the declining value of the CUP.
Meanwhile, the government remains silent on the promised “floating rate” announced by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero at the end of 2024, a measure that was never implemented. Its absence continues to widen the gap between the official and informal rates.
Reference Exchange Rates
U.S. Dollar (USD)
- 1 USD = 450 CUP
- 5 USD = 2,250 CUP
- 10 USD = 4,500 CUP
- 20 USD = 9,000 CUP
- 50 USD = 22,500 CUP
- 100 USD = 45,000 CUP
Euro (EUR)
- 1 EUR = 480 CUP
- 5 EUR = 2,400 CUP
- 10 EUR = 4,800 CUP
- 20 EUR = 9,600 CUP
- 50 EUR = 24,000 CUP
- 100 EUR = 48,000 CUP
- 200 EUR = 96,000 CUP
- 500 EUR = 240,000 CUP
The recent behavior of the informal market confirms that despite the regime’s attempts to curb speculation, the structural causes of the peso’s devaluation—such as inflation, fiscal deficit, and distrust—remain unchanged.
The outcome: a fresh surge in the dollar and euro, which adds pressure on prices and reflects the fragility of Cuba’s economic system.
FAQs on Cuba’s Informal Currency Market
Why are the dollar and euro increasing in value in Cuba?
The increase in the dollar and euro’s value is due to a combination of factors: ongoing inflation, a shortage of foreign currency in banks, and mistrust in the Cuban peso and government institutions, pushing more people towards the informal market.
What is the role of the informal market in Cuba’s economy?
The informal market in Cuba acts as a crucial barometer of the economic climate, offering a more accurate reflection of currency values and economic conditions compared to official channels, especially during periods of instability.
How does the currency fluctuation affect everyday life in Cuba?
Currency fluctuations impact everyday life by increasing the cost of goods and services, leading to higher living expenses for Cubans, who often earn wages in the devalued peso but need foreign currency for essential purchases.
