The Bank of England is widely expected to continue its recent pattern of quarterly cuts and reduce the Bank rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% today. Here is our full guide to today’s meeting, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
Risks appear tilted on the dovish side
“The reaction in sterling will be primarily driven by the vote split; expect dissenters on both sides. At least one member (Catherine Mann) should vote for a hold, and might be joined by two more (Huw Pill and Megan Greene), although this is not our base case. Arch-dove Swati Dhingra should vote for 50bp, with some risks of fellow dove Alan Taylor joining her. However, we wouldn’t read too much into the vote split, which has little predictive power for future decisions. Policy guidance should incidentally remain untouched, still signalling ‘gradual’ and ‘careful’ easing ahead.”
“Markets are pricing in the next cut in either November or December. While the risks appear tilted on the dovish side, there isn’t enough evidence that the jobs market deterioration is happening at an alarming pace, nor that services inflation is easing. We don’t think the BoE will offer reasons to heavily revise expectations on the dovish side today.”
“EUR/GBP may stabilise around 0.87 in the near term, while incoming fiscal decisions by the UK government in August continue to limit the likelihood of significant corrections. We have a more positive view on the pound against the dollar, and the potential pricing out of geopolitical risk in Europe bodes well for Cable, which can find its way back to 1.35 into the fourth quarter.”
