Bullish view
- Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2875.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2750.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2750.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.2875.
The GBP/USD exchange rate wavered after the mixed inflation numbers from the UK and the United States. It initially rose to a multi-week high of 1.2872 after the UK inflation numbers and then retreated to 1.2820 after the US CPI data.
US retail sales data ahead
Consumer prices in the UK rose at lower pace than expected in July, raising hopes that the Bank of England (BoE) will continue cutting interest rates. In a report, the Office of National Statistics (ONS) showed that the headline CPI rose from 2.0% in June to 2.2%, lower than the expected 2.3%.
On the positive side, the CPI retreated from 0.1% in June to minus 0.2% in July. Excluding the volatile food and energy prices, inflation slowed from 3.5% to 3.3% on a YoY basis and from 0.2% to 0.1% on a MoM basis. Therefore, after cutting rates earlier this month, economists predict that the BoE will slash again in November.
Meanwhile, in the United States, the annual headline CPI retreated from 3.0% to 2.9% while the core CPI fell from 3.3% to 3.2%. While inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target, these numbers mean that the Fed will deliver its first cut in its September meeting.
Looking ahead, there will be some important economic data from the US later on Thursday. The key data to watch will be the upcoming US retail sales, manufacturing and industrial production, and initial jobless claims.
Retail sales are important numbers because they provide good signals about the state of the American economy. The initial and continuing jobless claims numbers will also provide more information about the labor market, which the Fed is now increasingly focused on.
GBP/USD technical analysis
The GBP/USD exchange rate rose to a high of 1.2872 on Wednesday after the UK inflation data and then retreated after the US CPI data. It retreated to a low of 1.1830, its 50% retracement point on the four-hour chart.
The pair has remained above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), meaning that it is still bullish. It has also moved to the fourth phase of the Elliot Wave pattern.
Therefore, the pair will likely bounce back in the next few days. More upside will be confirmed if it rises above the important resistance point at 1.2872, its highest point this week.
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