The Indian rupee (INR) rebounded on Monday, supported by potential market intervention from the Reserve Bank of India, according to reports, that facilitated its recovery from last Friday’s record low.
The currency had plummeted to an all-time low of ₹89.49 on Friday due to a higher-than-expected trade deficit, foreign institutional investor outflows, and delays in India-US trade talks. Experts also pointed out that the INR dropped to a record low of 89.49 on Friday after the RBI sustained the 88.80 levels for an extended duration.
From a global perspective, analysts thought that the dollar index stayed steady, exceeding the significant 100 threshold after the U.S. non-farm payroll report showed an unexpected increase of 119,000. This, along with the Federal Reserve’s firm statements about delaying interest rate cuts, added further pressure on the rupee.
On Monday morning, the Indian rupee commenced trading at ₹89.15. However, the overall trend of the INR has continued to be weak and unstable throughout November 2025, trading close to all-time lows against the US dollar. Also, the INR has depreciated by approximately 4.4% in the fiscal year to date, and the currency is now among the weakest major Asian performers this year.
Analysts, however, anticipate that the INR will decline further, reaching levels of around ₹90.40 and ₹91.
Rupee Outlook
Yes Bank indicates a slight decline in the currency for the rest of FY26, as significant adjustments have already occurred. Currently, Yes Bank noted that India’s inflation is lower than that of the US, suggesting that substantial depreciation is not necessary.
“Having said, we expect FY27 Headline CPI for India to increase and is likely above the US inflation, thereby leading to a continued pressure for the INR to depreciate.
Our current understanding of the CAD and BoP dynamics indicate a BoP deficit of USD 5.5-6 bn for FY27. Guessing the end-March levels would be difficult as INR has now moved into the uncharted territory, but we think that it may be capped at 90.00,” said Yes Bank in its report.
Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities Ltd, said that the rupee recovered marginally on Monday morning after Friday’s steep fall but stayed above the 89 mark.
Kalantri believes that the ongoing profit-booking in equities and strength in the dollar index continued to weigh on the currency, while uncertainty over the India–US trade deal further dampened sentiment. However, lower crude oil prices provided partial relief, according to Rahul.
“Meanwhile, selling across major international asset classes, including cryptocurrencies, has strengthened the dollar index. Additionally, the possibility of a Russia–Ukraine peace agreement has also boosted the dollar, which remains negative for the rupee. We expect a rupee to remain volatile this week and a pair could trade in the range of 88.5500-90.8000 this week,” said Kalantri.
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