Rupee likely to maintain downward drift as Asian currencies slip, ET Auto

The Indian rupee is likely to continue trading with a slight depreciation bias on Tuesday, as most Asian currencies slipped ahead of closely-watched central bank policy decisions later in the week. Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open largely unchanged from its close at 83.7275 against the U.S. dollar in the previous session.

The currency had hit a record low of 83.74 on Monday, pressured by sustained dollar demand from local importers likely related to month-end payment outflows, traders said.

The dollar index was at 104.6 after rising 0.2% on Monday, while Asian currencies weakened slightly with the Indonesian rupiah down 0.3% and leading losses.

Despite the rupee hitting record lows in five out of the last six trading sessions, interventions from the Reserve Bank of India have ensured that the decline has been gradual.

The RBI has not been “protecting any level as such,” but has ensured that the dollar-rupee pair is “well-offered on upticks, which is likely to continue,” a foreign exchange trader at a large private bank said.

Focus this week is on three key central bank policy decisions starting with the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, followed by the Bank of England on Thursday.

While the Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, investors will pay attention to remarks from Chair Jerome Powell for cues on the future path of policy rates.

Interest rate futures are currently pricing in about 66 basis points of rate cuts over 2024, starting in September.

“We think that the market may have already front ran an expected dovish cue at this week’s FOMC meeting. In the absence of a crisis, calibrated cuts are the still most likely outcome,” DBS Bank said in a note.