Financial specialists and market analysts anticipate a challenging period for the rupee amid Middle East tensions.
The Indian rupee plunged to a fresh intraday low of 92.49 against the US dollar on Friday, pressured by Brent crude prices hovering around USD 100 per barrel. Currency experts said the domestic unit could remain under stress until the ongoing geopolitical crisis eases, which has bolstered the US dollar and pushed oil prices higher.
K N Dey, a currency expert, told ANI: “Rupee opened today at 92.34/35 showing signs of continuing pressure on Brent again around 100 with chances of further going up, Highly volatile with either side movement of 7 to 8 per cent intraday. Highly speculative zone.”
Experts noted that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been intervening in the foreign exchange market to curb volatility, but its capacity is limited. “The intervention acts only as a Speed Breaker. Dollar demand may also arise on account of Balance Sheet management. It’s extremely impossible to say how far the Rupee’s fall will extend,” Dey added.
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said: “The USD/INR pair is trading near the 92.00-92.50 range, reflecting continued pressure on the Indian rupee. Rising crude oil prices and safe-haven demand for the US dollar amid geopolitical uncertainty have placed emerging market currencies under pressure.”
Foreign outflows and market volatility add pressure
Experts also pointed to significant foreign investor outflows from Indian equities this month, which have weighed heavily on the rupee. Dey said: “FII’s have Net sold equities this month only in 8 trading days Rs. 46,000 crores roughly equal to US $ 5 billion going out. Huge outflows. Most of the Asian currencies have fallen. (Russian Ruble has gained).”
Concerns over supply chain disruptions and potential stop-loss triggers in dollar-rupee positions have further intensified market volatility. Dey noted the previous day’s high in the non-deliverable forward (NDF) market at 92.49/50, underlining the speculative nature of current trading.
Analysts forecast continued strain on the rupee
Financial specialists and market analysts anticipate a challenging period for the rupee amid Middle East tensions. MUFG analysts projected that if oil stabilises around $100 per barrel, the currency could weaken to 95.50 by year-end. In a worst-case scenario with oil at $120 per barrel, they warned it could rise to 97.50 or more.
HDFC Bank expects the rupee to fluctuate between 92 and 95 in the near term if regional hostilities persist, while Elara Securities predicts a range of 94 to 95. QuantEco Research takes a more pessimistic view, forecasting a slide to 98.5 by March 2027, assuming oil remains at $100 per barrel.
Experts emphasise high energy costs and foreign capital outflows as key drivers of rupee weakness. Persistent elevated oil prices could push the rupee past the 95-per-dollar threshold, deepening pressure on the economy.
Published: 13 Mar 2026, 03:57 pm IST
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