Following the reduction in tariffs and a potential shift of portfolio flows towards India, the Indian Rupee is likely to find support in the near to medium term from improving trade prospects with the US, as per Trinh Nguyen, Senior Economist for Emerging Markets at Natixis based in Hong Kong.
Nguyen stated that sentiment toward India has started to move more constructively after a phase of intense volatility, during which the rupee briefly slid to about 92 per dollar, even as the US dollar was weakening globally. “If you look at the rupee, it was depreciating to 92 to a dollar against the picture where the dollar was depreciating — it was the worst FX in Asia. Yesterday, it turned out to be the best and was appreciated very sharply. I think that the sentiment is shifting for India,” Nguyen said, news agency ANI reported.
Nguyen said the improvement was partly driven by expectations that a potential India–US trade agreement could lift export earnings and strengthen foreign exchange inflows. She added that this could be further supported by increased global capital allocation to Indian equities and bonds.
“I think that this trade deal will allow it to have more export income, and as a result, will provide more support,” she said. “And I think another part of that equation, of course, is FDI and portfolio flows.”
Inflows of FDI
Beyond short-term flows, Nguyen underscored the importance of ups and downs in foreign direct investment. The inflows of the gross FDI into India remain positive; however, net FDI has frequently been neutral or even negative, reflecting fund repatriation. “I think net FDI should be positive for India,” Nguyen said. “Because if it’s a country with a lot of potential, it should be reinvested.”
She also argued that recent progress in the rupee has lifted a massive burden on the currency. The rupee weighed heavily when the US imposed a 50 per cent tariff in 2025, unsettling both investors and policymakers. “Much of the challenge for India is really this drag. Suddenly it just kind of faces that 50 per cent tariff, which is a big shock, to be honest, for everybody,” she said. “And I think that huge burden on the rupee is being lifted (now).”
Although Nguyen does not foresee a steep or prolonged rise in the rupee against the US dollar, she said the currency could regain some of its previous losses and settle at firmer levels. “Will it appreciate significantly against the dollar? I don’t think so,” she said. “But I do think that there’s room for it to appreciate a bit and kind of retrace a lot of the losses.”
Commenting on monetary policy, Nguyen noted that she does not anticipate an immediate interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India, even though economic conditions remain manageable. She added that maintaining current rates would keep the interest-rate gap between India and the US relatively wide, which could continue to draw foreign investment.
