The Indian Rupee (INR) opens on a flat note against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday. The USD/INR pair continues to trade sideways around 88.85 for almost a week as investors await a breakthrough in trade talks between the United States (US) and India.
Negotiators from both nations have been commenting that trade discussions are going well and they are close to reaching a consensus. However, an absence of a deal announcement has kept the Indian Rupee on its back foot.
On Monday, US President Donald Trump reiterated his confidence that Washington and New Delhi are close to a bilateral pact, but did not provide a timeframe. Trump said at “some point” he would reduce the tariff rate on Indian goods, saying the US was getting “pretty close” to a trade deal with New Delhi, Bloomberg reported. He added, “Right now they don’t love me, but they’ll love us again,” and “We’re getting a fair deal”.
Meanwhile, the sentiment of overseas investors towards the Indian stock market remains grim due to a delay in the US-India trade deal announcement. On Monday, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) turned out to be net sellers and sold shares worth Rs. 4,114.85 crore.
Going forward, investors will focus on India’s retail Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October, which will be released on Wednesday. The inflation data will significantly influence market expectations for the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy outlook. Economists expect India’s retail inflation to have risen 0.48% on an annualized basis, slower than the 1.54% growth seen in September.
The table below shows the percentage change of Indian Rupee (INR) against listed major currencies today. Indian Rupee was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | INR | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.04% | 0.09% | 0.12% | 0.11% | 0.22% | -0.01% | -0.02% | |
| EUR | -0.04% | 0.05% | 0.09% | 0.08% | 0.19% | -0.06% | -0.06% | |
| GBP | -0.09% | -0.05% | 0.04% | 0.02% | 0.11% | -0.11% | -0.13% | |
| JPY | -0.12% | -0.09% | -0.04% | -0.03% | 0.08% | -0.15% | -0.17% | |
| CAD | -0.11% | -0.08% | -0.02% | 0.03% | 0.11% | -0.13% | -0.15% | |
| AUD | -0.22% | -0.19% | -0.11% | -0.08% | -0.11% | -0.24% | -0.29% | |
| INR | 0.00% | 0.06% | 0.11% | 0.15% | 0.13% | 0.24% | -0.01% | |
| CHF | 0.02% | 0.06% | 0.13% | 0.17% | 0.15% | 0.29% | 0.00% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Indian Rupee from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent INR (base)/USD (quote).
Traders see a 62.4% chance favoring Fed to cut interest rates in December
- The quiet opening of the USD/INR pair on Tuesday is also influenced by a stable US Dollar during the Asian session. At the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades flat around 99.65.
- The US Dollar trades calmly following the approval of the stopgap funding bill in the Senate to reopen the government after the historically longest shutdown.
- The Senate has advanced the bill to the House of Representatives, which would get passed by Wednesday, according to comments from Speaker Mike Johnson, Reuters reported.
- Meanwhile, investors brace for significant volatility in the US Dollar as the reopening of federal agencies would lead to a flood of economic data releases, which will direct the next move of the Federal Reserve (Fed).
- In the October policy meeting, the Fed stated that the interest rate cut was more a risk management and the December decision will be data-dependent.
- Investors will pay close attention to the employment data to get cues about the hiring trend. Latest commentaries from Fed officials signaled that they are cautious about weakening labor market conditions. Signs of softer job demand would boost expectations of more interest rate cuts by the Fed this year.
- Currently, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in the December meeting is 62.4%.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR aims to revisit all-time high near 89.10
The USD/INR pair remains confined in a tight range near 88.85. The pair stays above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 88.63.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) strives to return above 60.00. A fresh bullish momentum would emerge if the RSI (14) manages to do so.
Looking down, the August 21 low of 87.07 will act as key support for the pair. On the upside, the all-time high of 89.12 will be a key barrier.
