Macro update
Bitcoin breaks $80,000 on debasement trade: The cryptocurrency topped that level for the first time since mid-May, pushing its monthly gains to almost 30%, while gold slipped 0.2% to $4,640.39 an ounce, pulling back from an earlier three-month peak.
Iran sanctions warning underwhelms: The Trump administration cautioned countries to cut business ties with Iran or face secondary penalties—dubbed an “economic D-Day”—but stopped short of announcing specific measures or targets, leaving markets largely unfazed.
Dollar strengthens on access concerns: The greenback gained as fears over potential exclusion from the dollar-based financial system fuelled speculation of pre-emptive dollar buying by countries and banks, pushing the dollar index up 0.1% to 99.07 and the Canadian dollar to C$1.3860.
Treasury buyback talk calms bonds: Yields pulled back from recent highs following reports the Treasury may use its cash balance to repurchase longer-dated debt, though the relief was limited—the 10-year yield climbed back to 4.710% while the 2-year held flat at 4.246%.
Oil stabilizes after steep drop: Brent rebounded to $92.44 a barrel and US crude rose to $85.38, recovering some of the prior session’s 2% decline, as traders concluded economic pressure on Iran posed less risk to physical supply than a military strike would.
Nvidia earnings in focus: Shares were subdued in Asia and US index futures were mixed ahead of Wednesday’s results, with analysts expecting quarterly revenue to nearly double to around $92bn – while questioning whether growth fuelled by circular AI deals is sustainable.
