The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) exchange rate faces a 1.3700–1.3850 five-day trading range in National Bank of Canada’s latest tactical outlook.
TD Economics adds a CAD-supportive trade-relief argument, although contained inflation points to a patient Bank of Canada.
National Bank has projected a session range of 1.3720–1.3780.
Its separate 1.3790 figure was the report’s Bloomberg market-close snapshot, not the starting point of the forward-looking daily band.
National Bank linked pressure on the US currency to renewed turmoil in long-dated Treasury markets.
Higher inflation and federal-debt concerns had pushed the 30-year yield back upwards even after plans for larger bond buybacks, leaving the bank to conclude: “The U.S. dollar is ultimately bearing the consequences.”
The projected five-day floor at 1.3700 is therefore consistent with a softer Dollar backdrop, while the 1.3850 ceiling acknowledges that the Canadian story is not without risk.
TD sees trade relief supporting CAD, but the agreement remains unfinished
The domestic catalyst is a tentative Canada–US trade agreement that would halve steel and aluminium tariffs to 25% and reduce auto tariffs by ten percentage points to 15%.
TD Economics noted that negotiations were still under way, but said “The pending agreement was enough for the Canadian dollar to catch a bid”.
TD also found support in the Canadian data mix.
Real retail volumes rose 1.5% in June, their strongest monthly gain since March 2025, while preferred core inflation measures averaged around 2% in July.
The bank expects the Bank of Canada to remain patient and make no policy change at its 2 September meeting.
Trade relief and firm consumption therefore support CAD, but contained underlying inflation tempers expectations of a near-term rate increase that might otherwise amplify the currency’s advance.
The risks are material because the deal has not been finalised, future CUSMA negotiations remain unresolved and StatCan’s preliminary estimate points to a notable July retail pullback.
Oil volatility could also reshape the Canadian Dollar outlook quickly.
A move below 1.3700 would confirm that trade optimism and broad US Dollar weakness are producing a stronger CAD advance.
A recovery above 1.3850 would invalidate the mild CAD-positive bias and point instead to implementation risk, softer Canadian spending or renewed demand for the US currency.
Canadian Dollar Prices: This Week
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.91% | -0.81% | -0.21% | -0.78% | -1.21% | -1.48% | -1.47% | |
| EUR | +0.92% | +0.10% | +0.71% | +0.14% | -0.30% | -0.58% | -0.57% | |
| GBP | +0.82% | -0.10% | +0.61% | +0.04% | -0.40% | -0.67% | -0.66% | |
| JPY | +0.21% | -0.70% | -0.60% | -0.57% | -1.00% | -1.27% | -1.26% | |
| CAD | +0.78% | -0.13% | -0.04% | +0.57% | -0.44% | -0.71% | -0.70% | |
| AUD | +1.23% | +0.30% | +0.40% | +1.01% | +0.44% | -0.27% | -0.26% | |
| NZD | +1.50% | +0.58% | +0.68% | +1.29% | +0.72% | +0.27% | +0.01% | |
| CHF | +1.49% | +0.57% | +0.67% | +1.28% | +0.71% | +0.26% | -0.01% |
The FX heat map compares how Canadian Dollar (CAD) has performed against a basket of major currencies over the past week. The largest move was against the US Dollar, where Canadian Dollar made its strongest advance. Data comparing prices today (22/08/2026 06:57 UTC) and daily close on 15/08/2026.
To read the table, choose the base currency from the left-hand column and then move across to the quote currency along the top row. For example, the GBP row and USD column shows the weekly percentage move in GBP/USD.
Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
