EUR/USD stays in a consolidation phase above 1.1500 after posting gains on Monday and Tuesday. The pair’s near-term technical outlook points to a loss of bearish momentum as focus shifts to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy announcements.
Euro Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.93% | -0.78% | -0.33% | -0.20% | -1.58% | -1.14% | -0.48% | |
| EUR | 0.93% | 0.18% | 0.53% | 0.72% | -0.65% | -0.23% | 0.45% | |
| GBP | 0.78% | -0.18% | 0.49% | 0.56% | -0.80% | -0.39% | 0.35% | |
| JPY | 0.33% | -0.53% | -0.49% | 0.14% | -1.24% | -0.80% | -0.16% | |
| CAD | 0.20% | -0.72% | -0.56% | -0.14% | -1.42% | -0.94% | -0.27% | |
| AUD | 1.58% | 0.65% | 0.80% | 1.24% | 1.42% | 0.42% | 1.12% | |
| NZD | 1.14% | 0.23% | 0.39% | 0.80% | 0.94% | -0.42% | 0.65% | |
| CHF | 0.48% | -0.45% | -0.35% | 0.16% | 0.27% | -1.12% | -0.65% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The improvement seen in risk mood, as reflected by the modest recovery in Wall Street’s main indexes after the opening bell, helped EUR/USD edge higher in the American session on Tuesday.
Early Wednesday, US stock index futures stay in positive territory, limiting the USD’s gains and allowing EUR/USD to hold its ground.
In the second half of the day, market participants will take a break from the Middle East conflict and shift their attention to the Fed event.
The US central bank is widely expected to leave the policy rate unchanged after the March meeting. Alongside the policy statement, the Fed will publish the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which will highlight policymakers’ inflation, growth and interest rate expectations.
In December, the SEP showed that officials’ projections implied one 25 basis-points (bps) rate cut in 2026. In case the publication shows that a majority of policymakers see the interest rate remaining unchanged for the rest of the year, the immediate reaction could trigger a USD rally and weigh on EUR/USD. Conversely, the USD could have a hard time finding demand if the SEP points to at least one rate cut in 2026. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in about a 30% probability that the policy rate will hold steady at 3.5%-3.75% by end-2026.
Investors will also pay close attention to comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. If Powell hints that they will have to be more attentive to inflation risks, because of rising Oil prices due to the US-Iran war, the USD could preserve its strength. On the other hand, EUR/USD could gain traction in case Powell voices growing concerns over the labor market outlook after the February employment report showed a significant 92,000 decline in Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP).
EUR/USD Technical Analysis:
In the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1523. The near-term bias is mildly bullish after the pair rebounded from the 1.1500 support area and broke above the descending resistance trend line that originated near 1.1817 and was intersecting around 1.1509. Price now holds just above the 20-period Moving Average (MA) at 1.1487 and closes in on the 50-period MA at 1.1544, while remaining capped well below the flattening 100- and 200-period MAs clustered above 1.1630, which tempers upside conviction. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 51, reflecting balanced but recovering momentum that favors a gradual upside extension as long as the recent breakout is preserved.
Immediate support is located at 1.1500, reinforced by the nearby 20-period MA, with the next cushion at 1.1460 ahead of a stronger structural floor at 1.1410. Holding above 1.1500 would keep buyers in control and maintain the post-breakout structure. On the upside, initial resistance is seen near the 1.1600 area (static level), followed by the 100-period SMA at 1.1630 and 1.1670 (static level).
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
