The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate slumped to 3-month lows just above the 1.1500 level at the beginning of this week before a tentative recovery and is trading just above 1.16.
Danske Bank expects trends in energy prices will dominate and sees renewed EUR/USD selling. The bank expects that the dollar will represent a safe haven given the Middle East risks and has a short-term target of 1.12 before renewed gains for the pair later in the year.
According to Danske, the spike in energy prices represents a key negative for the Euro amid an important hit to the terms of trade. This will damage the Euro-Zone economy and weaken the trade position.
At this point the bank considers the threat that the war against Iran lasts longer than expected and, in this environment, a long dollar position is an attractive option to guard against the risk of serious disruption to energy supplies.
The bank notes that yields have moved in favour of the Euro, but it does not expect this trend will last as it does not expect the ECB to raise interest rates.
EUR/USD — Key Exchange Rate Highlights:
Current Rate: 1.146873 (13 Mar 2026, 11:58 UTC)
Daily Move: -0.45% (-0.005228)
Latest Close: 1.152191 (12 Mar)
March Range: 1.150814 – 1.179561
March Performance: -2.02%
12-Month Range: 1.078020 – 1.207544
Recent Trend: EUR/USD extending March losses with the euro under sustained pressure this week
Disclaimer: For information only, not investment advice. This EURUSD forecast summarises and interprets third-party research; views expressed are those of the original source and may not fully reflect the source’s complete analysis. Neither the source nor we accept liability for reliance on this interpretation.
