Photo by: Sanziana Perju / ECB.
The euro to dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) is forecast to trade at higher levels over the year ahead, but a new institutional survey shows banks have scaled back their optimism.
Aggregated data from over 30 investment banks shows a more cautious outlook, even as the overall profile for EUR/USD remains higher relative to current market conditions.
For anyone with EUR/USD payments to make, this shift changes the balance between waiting and acting, and the only way to judge that trade-off properly is by seeing where the institutional consensus now sits.
The full aggregated forecast report – available on request here – strips away headline noise and single-bank bias, replacing them with a clear market-wide signal that reflects how hundreds of assumptions about growth.
Rather than chasing the most bullish or bearish call, aggregated data shows where expectations are converging, and crucially, how that convergence is shifting over time.
The year-ahead survey shows investment banks continue to see EUR/USD holding higher levels over the year ahead, but they are doing so with noticeably less conviction than before, a change that speaks to rising uncertainty rather than outright pessimism.
For those transferring money in the euro-dollar corridor, this distinction is critical.
A strongly bullish consensus would argue for patience, while a decisively bearish one would favour urgency, but a higher profile that is being revised lower suggests the need for a more structured strategy, combining timing, flexibility and protection.
This is where institutional consensus data becomes a practical decision-making tool rather than an abstract forecast.
