The Indian rupee made a bearish break below the 88.45-88.80 range in the past week. That dragged the domestic currency to a new low of 89.54 against the dollar on Friday last week. The central bank taking a back seat from its intervention triggered this sharp fall in the rupee. However, the price action since the beginning of this week indicates that the presence of the central bank coming back into the market again.
The rupee has recovered from its all-time low of 89.54 and has closed at 89.22 on Tuesday.
Strong dollar
The dollar index (100.10) has been stable around 100 over the last few days. The short-term outlook is bullish. The index has very good support in the 99.80-99.65 region. So, any dips below 100 can be short-lived and limited to 99.65.
Immediate resistance is around 100.40. The chances are high for the dollar index to break this resistance in the coming days. Such a break can take the index higher towards 100.80 and even 101.20 in the short term.
To negate this rise, the index has to break below 99.65. Only then the outlook will turn negative. If that happens, then the index will come under danger of seeing a fall to 98.70-98.50.
Rupee outlook
Support for the rupee is around 89.60. This is holding well for now. Also, as mentioned above, the price action over the last couple of days indicates the presence of the central bank in the market.
As such, there are good chances for the rupee to see some recovery towards 89 or even 88.80 in the short-term. However, a break above 88.80 might not happen. We can expect the rupee to oscillate in a broad range of 88.80-89.60 for some time mow.
However, the broader trend is down. Rupee has room to decline towards 99-99.50 against the dollar eventually in the coming weeks.
Published on November 25, 2025
