Macro update
Fed rate-cut expectations jump:
Markets now assign roughly a 75% probability to a 25 basis point Federal Reserve (Fed) cut in December following dovish remarks from John Williams.
Global equities rebound:
Asian and European stocks advanced, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific up 1%, while futures pointed to further gains across the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, FTSE 100 and DAX 40.
Dollar steady as yen stays under pressure:
The Japanese yen hovered near a 10-month low, with traders wary of potential Japanese intervention during a week of thin liquidity.
US data delays blur the outlook:
The recent government shutdown has postponed key releases – including October consumer price index (CPI) – leaving policymakers with limited visibility on the economy’s underlying momentum.
Oil softens on geopolitical signals:
Hopes that US-Ukraine talks could ease sanctions on Russia kept crude prices subdued, while sterling firmed ahead of the UK budget announcement.
FTSE 100 bounces off support
Last week the FTSE 100 dropped to 9,423 before bouncing back and forming a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily candlestick chart.
The 9,600 region stalled the bullish reversal, though, and did so again on Monday morning.
Once overcome, the 9,637-to-9,638 Wednesday 5 and 7 lows may be reached next ahead of the 9,750 area.
Slips may find support between the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 19 November low at 9,514-to-9,497.
